Analisis Penalaran Probabilistik Siswa dalam Menyelesaikan Soal Peluang pada Materi Probabilitas

Abstract

This study aims to analyze students’ probabilistic reasoning in solving probability problems. The research uses a descriptive qualitative approach, in which the researcher acts as the main instrument responsible for planning, collecting, processing, and analyzing the data. The subjects of this study were selected based on specific criteria, including students who understand and those who have difficulties in probability concepts, as well as students who have basic knowledge of probabilistic reasoning. Two subjects were chosen to provide comparative data in understanding different levels of probabilistic reasoning. Data collection was carried out by giving students a problem related to the probability of obtaining one head and one tail from a coin experiment. Students’ written responses were analyzed based on predetermined indicators of probabilistic reasoning. To obtain deeper insights into students’ thinking processes, interviews and field notes were also conducted, especially when written answers did not fully reflect their reasoning. The data were then analyzed through several steps, including data transcription, organization, coding, categorization, interpretation, and validation, following qualitative data analysis procedures proposed by Creswell (2012). The results of this study are expected to describe the characteristics and levels of students’ probabilistic reasoning in solving probability problems. This research highlights the importance of understanding students’ reasoning processes to support effective learning strategies in probability, as this topic is fundamental yet often considered difficult by students.